BRIEFS
CHINA: Chinese Military Plans Strategic Shift
Andrew Stover
Issue date: 10/14/09 Section: Eagle Eye
Summary: Sources say that, in an effort to boost its technological capabilities, China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) is planning a troop reduction.
Development: Reports indicate that the PLA has made plans to reduce the size of its 2.3-million-strong ground force by 700,000 troops. The resources freed up from this reduction will be applied to the creation of a more technically advanced military force. Principle changes expected in the next three to five years include replacing older aircraft with more advanced versions and the creation of a blue-water navy. The PLA also plans to commission the nation's first aircraft carrier by 2015. To staff these new developments, the size of both the Chinese Navy and Air Force will be expanded. Another element of these tactical improvements will be the creation of more advanced weaponry and the expansion and improvement of the Chinese special forces.
Analysis: While PLA modernization will make China's military more competitive with the United States, a smaller land army means a smaller police force to ensure the stability of the current Chinese regime. This will not be much of a threat to Beijing and the eastern reaches of China's territory, but with the recent disturbances in Tibet and acts of defiance and violence in the Uighur territory in the Xinjiang province in China, a smaller police force could make political control in those areas more difficult. However, less military force in these areas will not likely be a problem for China in the future as it continues to grow into a key global player. This concept can be seen by Taiwan's recent refusal to accept a popular Uighur activist into its borders and frequent displays of affection towards China by the United States. The Chinese have already begun to flex their regional muscle by assisting in anti-piracy patrols around Somalia and harassing U.S. intelligence ships. If this trend progresses, it may become increasingly difficult for the United States to maintain its current level of influence in Asia.
Development: Reports indicate that the PLA has made plans to reduce the size of its 2.3-million-strong ground force by 700,000 troops. The resources freed up from this reduction will be applied to the creation of a more technically advanced military force. Principle changes expected in the next three to five years include replacing older aircraft with more advanced versions and the creation of a blue-water navy. The PLA also plans to commission the nation's first aircraft carrier by 2015. To staff these new developments, the size of both the Chinese Navy and Air Force will be expanded. Another element of these tactical improvements will be the creation of more advanced weaponry and the expansion and improvement of the Chinese special forces.
Analysis: While PLA modernization will make China's military more competitive with the United States, a smaller land army means a smaller police force to ensure the stability of the current Chinese regime. This will not be much of a threat to Beijing and the eastern reaches of China's territory, but with the recent disturbances in Tibet and acts of defiance and violence in the Uighur territory in the Xinjiang province in China, a smaller police force could make political control in those areas more difficult. However, less military force in these areas will not likely be a problem for China in the future as it continues to grow into a key global player. This concept can be seen by Taiwan's recent refusal to accept a popular Uighur activist into its borders and frequent displays of affection towards China by the United States. The Chinese have already begun to flex their regional muscle by assisting in anti-piracy patrols around Somalia and harassing U.S. intelligence ships. If this trend progresses, it may become increasingly difficult for the United States to maintain its current level of influence in Asia.
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