BRIEFS
PAKISTAN: Ground Offensive Begins
John Martin
Issue date: 10/28/09 Section: Eagle Eye
Summary: The Pakistan Army's ground offensive to dismantle Taliban and al-Qaida networks in South Waziristan will encounter resistance once the troops are drawn into higher ground.
Development: The Associated Press reported on Oct. 17 that the Pakistani Army launched a ground offensive, known as Rah-e-Nijat, into South Waziristan after air raids in Bajaur on Oct 12. Ground operations destroyed two ammo caches, captured supplies and seized the towns of Sherwanzi and Kotkai. Troops reinforced areas around Wuzi Sar, Boya Narai, and Razmak. The military is facing 10,000 to 15,000 militants with additional support from an estimated 1,500 Uzbek mercenaries. Islamabad evacuated 140,000 civilians on Oct. 16, prior to the ground offensive. Reuters stated today that Kotkai was recaptured by Taliban forces.
Analysis: While Pakistani troops are utilizing a three-to-one attack ratio (a tactic commonly employed by the U.S.), the extremely rugged terrain and the proven capabilities of the warrior tribesmen really calls for a nine-to-one ratio. Since the Kerry-Lugers Bill had provisions for both air and ground operations, militants likely had prior knowledge of the offensive, giving them ample time to prepare. With winter 2 weeks away, there is a good chance that the Tehrik-i-Taliban will recruit reinforcements from the other federally administered tribal areas to fight the army to a standstill. It is likely the militants will not fight the Pakistani army face-to-face, but resort to guerrilla tactics as they have done in the past. If the offensive fails, the Zardari administration could further lose legitimacy. Some militants may flee with refugees and continue terror attacks throughout Pakistan. The Pakistani military has failed to push insurgents out of South Waziristan three times since 2004. This operation, at the behest of Washington, may succeed, but the costs will be high.
Development: The Associated Press reported on Oct. 17 that the Pakistani Army launched a ground offensive, known as Rah-e-Nijat, into South Waziristan after air raids in Bajaur on Oct 12. Ground operations destroyed two ammo caches, captured supplies and seized the towns of Sherwanzi and Kotkai. Troops reinforced areas around Wuzi Sar, Boya Narai, and Razmak. The military is facing 10,000 to 15,000 militants with additional support from an estimated 1,500 Uzbek mercenaries. Islamabad evacuated 140,000 civilians on Oct. 16, prior to the ground offensive. Reuters stated today that Kotkai was recaptured by Taliban forces.
Analysis: While Pakistani troops are utilizing a three-to-one attack ratio (a tactic commonly employed by the U.S.), the extremely rugged terrain and the proven capabilities of the warrior tribesmen really calls for a nine-to-one ratio. Since the Kerry-Lugers Bill had provisions for both air and ground operations, militants likely had prior knowledge of the offensive, giving them ample time to prepare. With winter 2 weeks away, there is a good chance that the Tehrik-i-Taliban will recruit reinforcements from the other federally administered tribal areas to fight the army to a standstill. It is likely the militants will not fight the Pakistani army face-to-face, but resort to guerrilla tactics as they have done in the past. If the offensive fails, the Zardari administration could further lose legitimacy. Some militants may flee with refugees and continue terror attacks throughout Pakistan. The Pakistani military has failed to push insurgents out of South Waziristan three times since 2004. This operation, at the behest of Washington, may succeed, but the costs will be high.
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