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Issue date: 2/3/10 Section: Eagle Eye
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HONDURAS: New President Inaugurated as Ex-President Sent Into Exile

Summary: President Porfirio Lobo's inauguration and signing of amnesty decrees on Wednesday leaves many Zelaya supporters in the region questioning the legitimacy of this recent election.

Development: Lobo was inaugurated as president on Jan. 27. He immediately signed an amnesty decree approved by the National Congress for both Manuel Zelaya, who had previously been president, and the leaders of the Jun. 28 coup. The decree dismisses the abuse of power charges against Zelaya; however, he is still facing embezzlement charges of $1.5 million.

Honduras is still sharply divided between Zelaya supporters, who saw him as a defender of the poor, and those who resented his leftist tendencies. Surrounding countries are also split, some refusing to recognize Lobo's new government and others demanding Zelaya's reinstatement. Washington has announced a possible aid package to Honduras and the new Lobo administration on the condition that a "truth commission" be established to investigate the June coup, among other requirements.

Analysis: Lobo's inauguration may put an end to the ongoing conflicts which existed prior to (but were exaggerated by) the coup. This could be extremely beneficial for Honduras, which has been rife with economic inequality, poverty, and violence.

However, this is contingent on the international recognition of Lobo's new administration. Several countries, including the U.S., have issued official statements agreeing that the November elections were fair, declaring Lobo's government legitimate. Yet, many leftist-leaning governments in the region, such as Venezuela, Argentina, and Brazil, feel that supporting Lobo is akin to legitimizing a coup and are demanding Zelaya's reinstatement.

Lobo also faces internal problems with the large base of Zelaya supporters. While Lobo faces regional and international opposition, his primary focus will likely be on gaining domestic support and proving his administration as legitimate to the Honduran public.

[Alanna Prichard]




PAKISTAN: NATO Supply Convoy Attacked

Summary: An ambush on a NATO convoy outside of Karachi highlights problems in security, and may affect future supply routes in the region.

Development: On Jan. 28, three NATO supply trucks traveling from the port of Karachi to Khandahar were ambushed on the northern bypass outside Dalda Mor. The Dawn News Agency reported that assailants on motorbikes stopped the convoy using a grenade and seemingly random, untargeted gunfire. Three Pakistani civilian employees were wounded in the attack. Convoys and fuel trucks carrying supplies to coalition forces have been targeted predominantly along the Afghan border, near the Khyber Pass and the Quetta-Chaman corridor. Waseem Ahmed of the Karachi police stated, "The transporters of supplies to Afghanistan have been conveyed a message very loud and clear."
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